The effects of past SARS experience and proximity on declines in numbers of travelers to the Republic of Korea during the 2015 MERS outbreak: A retrospective study
Identifieur interne : 000344 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 000343; suivant : 000345The effects of past SARS experience and proximity on declines in numbers of travelers to the Republic of Korea during the 2015 MERS outbreak: A retrospective study
Auteurs : Heesoo Joo [États-Unis] ; Ronald E. Henry [États-Unis] ; Yeon-Kyeng Lee [Corée du Sud] ; Andre D. Berro [États-Unis] ; Brian A. Maskery [États-Unis]Source :
- Travel Medicine and Infectious Disease [ 1477-8939 ] ; 2019.
Descripteurs français
- KwdFr :
- MESH :
English descriptors
- KwdEn :
- MESH :
- geographic , epidemiology : Republic of Korea.
- epidemiology : Coronavirus Infections, Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome.
- statistics & numerical data : Travel.
- Humans, Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus, Regression Analysis, Retrospective Studies.
Abstract
The experience of previous sizable outbreaks may affect travelers’ decisions to travel to an area with an ongoing outbreak.
We estimated changes in monthly numbers of visitors to the Republic of Korea (ROK) in 2015 compared to projected values by selected areas. We tested whether areas’ experience of a previous SARS outbreak of ≥100 cases or distance to the ROK had a significant effect on travel to the ROK during the MERS outbreak using t-tests and regression models.
The percentage changes in visitors from areas with a previous SARS outbreak of ≥100 cases decreased more than the percentage changes in visitors from their counterparts in June (52.4% vs. 23.3%) and July (60.0% vs. 31.4%) during the 2015 MERS outbreak. The percentage changes in visitors from the close and intermediate categories decreased more than the far category. The results from regression models and sensitivity analyses demonstrated that areas with ≥100 SARS cases and closer proximity to the ROK had significantly larger percentage decreases in traveler volumes during the outbreak.
During the 2015 MERS outbreak, areas with a previous sizable SARS outbreak and areas near the ROK showed greater decreases in percentage changes in visitors to the ROK.
Url:
DOI: 10.1016/j.tmaid.2019.05.009
PubMed: 31102656
PubMed Central: 6688921
Affiliations:
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Henry</name><affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:aff id="aff1">Division of Global Migration and Quarantine, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, USA</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Division of Global Migration and Quarantine, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="state">Géorgie (États-Unis)</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Lee, Yeon Kyeng" sort="Lee, Yeon Kyeng" uniqKey="Lee Y" first="Yeon-Kyeng" last="Lee">Yeon-Kyeng Lee</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff2">Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Cheongju-si, Chungcheongbuk-do, Republic of Korea</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Corée du Sud</country><wicri:regionArea>Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Cheongju-si, Chungcheongbuk-do</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Chungcheongbuk-do</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Berro, Andre D" sort="Berro, Andre D" uniqKey="Berro A" first="Andre D." last="Berro">Andre D. Berro</name><affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:aff id="aff1">Division of Global Migration and Quarantine, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, USA</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Division of Global Migration and Quarantine, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="state">Géorgie (États-Unis)</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Maskery, Brian A" sort="Maskery, Brian A" uniqKey="Maskery B" first="Brian A." last="Maskery">Brian A. Maskery</name><affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:aff id="aff1">Division of Global Migration and Quarantine, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, USA</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Division of Global Migration and Quarantine, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="state">Géorgie (États-Unis)</region></placeName></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">Travel Medicine and Infectious Disease</title><idno type="ISSN">1477-8939</idno><idno type="eISSN">1873-0442</idno><imprint><date when="2019">2019</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass><keywords scheme="KwdEn" xml:lang="en"><term>Coronavirus Infections (epidemiology)</term><term>Humans</term><term>Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus</term><term>Regression Analysis</term><term>Republic of Korea (epidemiology)</term><term>Retrospective Studies</term><term>Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (epidemiology)</term><term>Travel (statistics & numerical data)</term></keywords><keywords scheme="KwdFr" xml:lang="fr"><term>Analyse de régression</term><term>Coronavirus du syndrome respiratoire du Moyen-Orient</term><term>Humains</term><term>Infections à coronavirus (épidémiologie)</term><term>République de Corée (épidémiologie)</term><term>Syndrome respiratoire aigu sévère (épidémiologie)</term><term>Voyage ()</term><term>Études rétrospectives</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" type="geographic" qualifier="epidemiology" xml:lang="en"><term>Republic of Korea</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="epidemiology" xml:lang="en"><term>Coronavirus Infections</term><term>Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="statistics & numerical data" xml:lang="en"><term>Travel</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="épidémiologie" xml:lang="fr"><term>Infections à coronavirus</term><term>République de Corée</term><term>Syndrome respiratoire aigu sévère</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" xml:lang="en"><term>Humans</term><term>Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus</term><term>Regression Analysis</term><term>Retrospective Studies</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" xml:lang="fr"><term>Analyse de régression</term><term>Coronavirus du syndrome respiratoire du Moyen-Orient</term><term>Humains</term><term>Voyage</term><term>Études rétrospectives</term></keywords></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><sec><title>Background</title><p>The experience of previous sizable outbreaks may affect travelers’ decisions to travel to an area with an ongoing outbreak.</p></sec><sec><title>Methods</title><p>We estimated changes in monthly numbers of visitors to the Republic of Korea (ROK) in 2015 compared to projected values by selected areas. We tested whether areas’ experience of a previous SARS outbreak of ≥100 cases or distance to the ROK had a significant effect on travel to the ROK during the MERS outbreak using t-tests and regression models.</p></sec><sec><title>Results</title><p>The percentage changes in visitors from areas with a previous SARS outbreak of ≥100 cases decreased more than the percentage changes in visitors from their counterparts in June (52.4% vs. 23.3%) and July (60.0% vs. 31.4%) during the 2015 MERS outbreak. The percentage changes in visitors from the close and intermediate categories decreased more than the far category. The results from regression models and sensitivity analyses demonstrated that areas with ≥100 SARS cases and closer proximity to the ROK had significantly larger percentage decreases in traveler volumes during the outbreak.</p></sec><sec><title>Conclusions</title><p>During the 2015 MERS outbreak, areas with a previous sizable SARS outbreak and areas near the ROK showed greater decreases in percentage changes in visitors to the ROK.</p></sec></div></front><back><div1 type="bibliography"><listBibl><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Korea Centers For Disease Control And Prevention" uniqKey="Korea Centers For Disease Control And Prevention">Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Korean Ministry Of Health And Welfare" uniqKey="Korean Ministry Of Health And Welfare">Korean Ministry of Health and Welfare</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="World Health Organization" uniqKey="World Health Organization">World Health Organization</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Korea Tourism Organization" uniqKey="Korea Tourism Organization">Korea Tourism Organization</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Joo, H" uniqKey="Joo H">H. 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Pourbohloul</name></author><author><name sortKey="Goh, S H" uniqKey="Goh S">S.H. Goh</name></author><author><name sortKey="Bowie, W R" uniqKey="Bowie W">W.R. Bowie</name></author><author><name sortKey="Booth, T F" uniqKey="Booth T">T.F. Booth</name></author><author><name sortKey="Tweed, S A" uniqKey="Tweed S">S.A. Tweed</name></author><author><name sortKey="Perry, T L" uniqKey="Perry T">T.L. Perry</name></author><author><name sortKey="Mcgeer, A" uniqKey="Mcgeer A">A. McGeer</name></author><author><name sortKey="Brunham, R C" uniqKey="Brunham R">R.C. Brunham</name></author></analytic></biblStruct></listBibl></div1></back></TEI><affiliations><list><country><li>Corée du Sud</li><li>États-Unis</li></country><region><li>Géorgie (États-Unis)</li></region></list><tree><country name="États-Unis"><region name="Géorgie (États-Unis)"><name sortKey="Joo, Heesoo" sort="Joo, Heesoo" uniqKey="Joo H" first="Heesoo" last="Joo">Heesoo Joo</name></region><name sortKey="Berro, Andre D" sort="Berro, Andre D" uniqKey="Berro A" first="Andre D." last="Berro">Andre D. Berro</name><name sortKey="Henry, Ronald E" sort="Henry, Ronald E" uniqKey="Henry R" first="Ronald E." last="Henry">Ronald E. Henry</name><name sortKey="Maskery, Brian A" sort="Maskery, Brian A" uniqKey="Maskery B" first="Brian A." last="Maskery">Brian A. Maskery</name></country><country name="Corée du Sud"><noRegion><name sortKey="Lee, Yeon Kyeng" sort="Lee, Yeon Kyeng" uniqKey="Lee Y" first="Yeon-Kyeng" last="Lee">Yeon-Kyeng Lee</name></noRegion></country></tree></affiliations></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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